Luminar’s financial crisis, Ford’s JV unraveling, and BMW’s leadership shakeup signal deepening volatility in the automotive sector. With rising tariffs, shifting alliances, and supplier upheaval, this issue explores how global OEMs and suppliers are navigating cost pressures, geopolitical tension, and sourcing disruptions that could redefine EV, battery, and component strategies.. For the week of December 5 - 11, 2025, by Elm Analytics
Excellent breakdown of the Ford-Renault timing risk. The 2028 launch date is the real tell here, basically admitting that cost-sharing trumps speed in their calculus. I've seen similar platform partnerships in manufacturing where the "fast follower" ends up being the slow loser because suppliers already locked capacity with first movers. What's gonna be intresting is how tier-1s price this in when Ford starts sourcing convos knowing rivals have 2+ year headstart.
I think you’re right that the 2028 timing is the tell. It implicitly says that Ford is prioritizing capital discipline over the ability to shape the market. Which is rational, right? But it also means suppliers know Ford _needs_ the platform to work, which weakens sourcing leverage when competitors are already at scale.
Excellent breakdown of the Ford-Renault timing risk. The 2028 launch date is the real tell here, basically admitting that cost-sharing trumps speed in their calculus. I've seen similar platform partnerships in manufacturing where the "fast follower" ends up being the slow loser because suppliers already locked capacity with first movers. What's gonna be intresting is how tier-1s price this in when Ford starts sourcing convos knowing rivals have 2+ year headstart.
I think you’re right that the 2028 timing is the tell. It implicitly says that Ford is prioritizing capital discipline over the ability to shape the market. Which is rational, right? But it also means suppliers know Ford _needs_ the platform to work, which weakens sourcing leverage when competitors are already at scale.