Automotive Supply Chain Risk Digest #431
May 2 - 8, 2025, by Elm Analytics
Contents
CHANGE IN MANAGEMENT
Polestar CEO exits amid tariff strain
Duncan Aldred to lead GM North America
EARNING DIP
Toyota warns $1.3B earnings drop
EXPANDING
ArcelorMittal JV expands steel grades
HUMAN CAPITAL
Stellantis trims jobs, hires in Italy
Volvo cuts 125 US plant jobs
Novo Energy halves staff post-bankruptcy
MERGERS, VENTURES, ACQUISITIONS
Nissan scraps $1.1B battery plant
Foxtron to build EV for Mitsubishi
Geely proposes to privatize Zeekr
OPENING
Rivian building new supplier park
Waymo, Magna open AV factory
PRODUCTION DECREASE
GM ends Oshawa third shift
Suppliers push volume over margins
REGULATION
Automakers scramble to certify content
US-UK trade deal cuts tariffs
Detroit Three criticize UK deal
RISK ANALYTICS
Taiwan suppliers vital but vulnerable
Change In Management
Polestar North America CEO Anders Gustafsson will step down on May 11, hinting at a move into high-volume vehicle retail. Rick Bryant takes over as the brand contends with severe tariff impacts, a China-dependent supply chain, and an urgent shift toward US-based production.
GM has named Duncan Aldred to lead its North American operations, leveraging his experience driving growth at Buick, GMC, and in commercial strategy. The move fills a leadership gap left by Marissa West as GM continues to balance its ICE and EV portfolios.
Earning Dip
Toyota has announced that new US auto and parts tariffs will reduce its earnings by $1.3B in April and May, leading to a projected 20% drop in operating income for the fiscal year ending March 2026.
CEO Koji Sato called the trade environment "in extreme flux," affecting Japan's auto industry. Although Toyota is less vulnerable than smaller Japanese automakers, the situation underscores the growing disruption in the automotive supply chain.
Stalled trade talks between Japan and the US also add further uncertainty for suppliers and OEMs.
Expanding
ArcelorMittal, based in Luxembourg, is expanding its JV in Loudi, China, with Hunan Iron & Steel. They will add 24 new steel grades and are building on a previous expansion in 2023 that increased their capacity to 2M tons. They are also establishing an R&D center to meet the demand for NEVs and a localized supply chain.
Human Capital
Stellantis is cutting up to 1k jobs in Italy, with 200 at Termoli and 500 at Melfi through voluntary redundancies, as it shifts Termoli from paused EV battery plans to hybrid transmission production.
Despite preparing for future vehicle output, Melfi faces cuts, raising union concerns about broader reductions.
Meanwhile, Stellantis is hiring 300 employees in Turin and Atessa to support operations.
These changes highlight the company's effort to adjust its Italian presence amid soft EV demand and delayed model rollouts.
Novo Energy, Volvo Cars' battery JV, will cut half its staff due to Northvolt's bankruptcy and stalled efforts to secure a new tech partner. Volvo plans to maintain operations in Gothenburg, Sweden, but must restructure the venture to continue production.
Mergers, Ventures, Acquisitions
Nissan has scrapped its $1.1B EV battery plant project in Kitakyushu, Japan, as part of a broader restructuring under new CEO Ivan Espinosa following a projected record loss. The move underscores how automakers under financial pressure are reassessing capital-intensive EV supply chain commitments.
Foxtron, backed by Foxconn (Hon Hai) and Yulon, will produce an EV for Mitsubishi Motors to launch in Australia and New Zealand in H2-2026. Earlier this year, there was speculation that Foxconn would make a bid for Mitsubishi's alliance partner, Nissan, after its merger with Honda fell through.
Geely has offered to take Zeekr private to consolidate resources and strengthen its EV competitiveness. The proposal follows Zeekr's recent acquisition of Lynk & Co assets and reflects Geely's push for operational efficiency in a turbulent global market.
Opening
Rivian will build a $120M supplier park adjacent to (and with a parts tunnel between) its Normal, Illinois, plant. The investment is aided by $16M in incentives to streamline EV production and support its upcoming R2 launch.
Waymo is partnering with Magna to build over 2k autonomous Jaguar and Zeekr vehicles at a new factory in Mesa, Arizona, to support its growing ride-hailing fleet. The site will centralize tech integration and marks a pivotal step in scaling Waymo's commercial AV operations.
Production Decrease
General Motors is discontinuing the third shift at its Oshawa Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, reducing annual production by 48k units due to US auto import tariffs, affecting 700 plant workers and resulting in an additional 1.5k job losses in the regional supply chain.
This decision is part of a strategy to focus on producing more vehicles for the Canadian market while increasing truck output at the Fort Wayne, Indiana, plant.
Auto suppliers urge OEMs to prioritize production volume over profit margins as they navigate rising tariff costs.
While suppliers like Lear, BorgWarner, and Magna expect to pass most tariff-related expenses to automakers, they remain concerned about declining production volumes if automakers raise prices and suppress demand.
Forecasts anticipate a near 1M vehicle drop in 2025 North American production. Suppliers are also racing to increase USMCA compliance to avoid future duty exposure, though reaching regional content thresholds may require costly product redesigns.
Regulation
Automakers are urgently auditing their supply chains to calculate US-sourced content in vehicles and parts imported from Mexico and Canada, aiming to minimize costs.
The 25% tariff applies only to the non-US value of USMCA-compliant goods, but determining that share requires unprecedented visibility into Tier-3 and Tier-4 supplier inputs.
Even basic components, like brake calipers or engines, now demand breakdowns of origin for raw materials such as aluminum or steel.
This process is straining OEM-supplier relationships, as suppliers resist sharing detailed cost structures that could be leveraged in pricing negotiations.
Errors in content declarations could trigger retroactive penalties, compounding financial risk.
With nearly $100B in parts and 2.8M vehicles exported from Mexico to the US last year, accurate certification has become a high-stakes priority across the North American auto industry.
The US and UK have reached a preliminary trade agreement that lowers tariffs on British automotive, steel, and aluminum exports. Tariffs on the first 100k UK-made vehicles exported to the US will be capped at 10%, down from 25%.
Additionally, British steel and aluminum will be exempt from recent US tariffs. While this agreement eases some trade pressures, it remains in draft form and may take weeks to finalize, limiting its immediate economic impact.
"Under this deal, it will now be cheaper to import a UK vehicle with very little US content than a USMCA compliant vehicle from Mexico or Canada that is half American parts.This hurts American automakers, suppliers, and auto workers."
- The American Automotive Policy Council (representing the Detroit Three)
Risk Analytics
Despite mounting military pressure from China, Taiwan's auto parts suppliers continue operating as essential nodes in the global supply chain, particularly for the US market, which receives over half of Taiwan's automotive component exports.
Companies like Actron, Aker Technology, and Fair Sun Industrial produce key, often overlooked components such as alternator diodes and quartz crystals, vital to global automotive manufacturing.
While these suppliers stockpile inventories abroad and expand USMCA-compliant exports, many still rely on single-location manufacturing in Taiwan, exposing OEMs to significant geopolitical risk.
Recent Chinese military drills simulating blockades have reignited fears of supply disruptions similar to those experienced during Japan's 2011 disaster or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Taiwan's auto component sector is deeply embedded in global production, and any disruption, even to small or inexpensive parts, could paralyze vehicle assembly far beyond the island's borders.
