Automotive Supply Chain Risk Digest #429
April 18 - 24, 2025, by Elm Analytics
Contents
BANKRUPTCY
Bohai Trimet insolvency hits 678 workers
Ascend files Chapter 11, restructures debt
EARNING DIP
Nissan expects $5.26B net loss
Tesla Q1 income drops 71 percent
EXPANDING
Toyota invests $88M in hybrid line
INDUSTRY DIRECTIONS
G4 output slows, risks rising
MERGERS, VENTURES, ACQUISITIONS
Baolong, JOYNEXT team up on tech
Huayou replaces LGES in EV project
PRODUCTION INCREASE
GM boosts gas transmission output
Stellantis restarts Windsor plant shifts
Mexico auto production up 12.1%
REGULATION
Metal tariffs worry suppliers lacking visibility
Trump may raise Canada auto tariffs
Tariff hike warnings from US groups
Trump exempts select auto parts tariffs
UK may slash US car import duties
RELOCATING
Hyundai moves Tucson SUV to US
Toyota considers RAV4 shift to Kentucky
Bankruptcy
Auto parts supplier Bohai Trimet has filed for insolvency (DE), affecting 678 employees at its German plants. Production continues as administrators seek new investors.
The maker of aluminum components for major German and Italian automakers faces rising pressure from weak demand, trade tensions, and the EV transition, underscoring mounting supply chain volatility across Europe's auto industry.
Ascend Performance Materials, a supplier of nylon components, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to restructure its debt while continuing operations.
Serving segments such as automotive powertrain, exterior, interior, e-mobility, and cable management, the company reports $1B in assets and $10B in liabilities, with $250M in financing secured to maintain production.
The filing follows recent plant closures and layoffs, but is not expected to disrupt supply.
Earning Dip
Nissan expects a record net loss of up to $5.26B for the fiscal year ending March 2025, driven by $3.5B in impairment charges tied to global plant closures and asset write-downs.
The restructuring, led by new CEO Ivan Espinosa after failed merger talks with Honda, signals deep capacity cuts and a shift in the automaker's global production strategy.
Tesla's first-quarter net income plummeted 71% as global vehicle sales declined, driven by a consumer backlash linked to Elon Musk's political ties, shifting trade policies, and production halts for the refreshed Model Y. The company also faced rising tariff pressures and poured resources into AI development.
Expanding
Toyota is planning to invest $88M in its plant in Buffalo, West Virginia, to support the launch of a new production line for hybrid transaxles. Production is expected to commence in late 2026, and the parts will be utilized in Toyota and Lexus models manufactured in North America.
Industry Directions
Slowing output and falling confidence across the US, UK, Eurozone, and Japan amplify risks to global supply chains, signaling potential slowdowns in automotive demand, investment, and logistics.
G4 business activity has decelerated to its weakest pace since December 2023, with flat manufacturing output and waning services growth, pressured by tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising costs.
Business sentiment has dropped to near-pandemic lows, underscoring growing concerns over trade volatility and inflation that could further destabilize the automotive sector.
Mergers, Ventures, Acquisitions
Baolong Automotive and JOYNEXT have formed a strategic alliance to co-develop L2–L4 assisted driving and smart cockpit technologies using integrated V2X, robotics, and connectivity solutions.
China's Huayou Cobalt will replace LG Energy Solution as a strategic investor in Indonesia's $8.4B EV battery project, with plans proceeding unchanged despite the shift.
Production Increase
General Motors will boost internal combustion transmission production at its Toledo, Ohio, plant, repurposing an EV drive unit line to meet rising demand for ICE vehicles.
While GM says the move isn't tied to recent tariffs, it comes amid delays in EV truck launches and missed 2024 EV output goals, highlighting how shifting market demand is forcing automakers to recalibrate production strategies.
Stellantis has restarted two-shift production $ at its Windsor, Ontario plant after a two-week pause linked to US vehicle tariffs, recalling hundreds of workers from Michigan and Indiana.
At the same time, the automaker is keeping its Toluca, Mexico, plant idle and planning short-term shutdowns at two Detroit facilities as it balances output and prepares for upcoming model launches.
Mexico's automotive production increased by 12.1% in March 2025 as automakers ramped up output and temporarily halted some exports ahead of looming US import tariffs. Q1 production climbed 4.8% year-over-year. The shift reflects growing supply chain volatility driven by trade policy uncertainty.
Regulation
Auto suppliers are facing significant challenges from the new 25% US tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives, which now apply to a wide range of vehicle components, including aluminum door hinges, bumper parts, and suspension elements.
These tariffs require companies to identify and calculate the value of foreign steel or aluminum used in parts, a task described as "monumental" by Magna CEO Swamy Kotagiri due to the thousands of components and processes involved.
Smaller suppliers are particularly vulnerable, with one executive saying, "If you ask me what's keeping me up at night, it's the steel and aluminum derivatives," reflecting widespread anxiety in the sector.
Suppliers lacking detailed visibility $ into their multi-tiered supply chains face steep penalties if they misreport material content.
If the value can't be determined, duties are imposed on the full value of the part.
The financial and administrative burdens are significant, with nearly $150B in goods now subject to these derivative tariffs, including $25.7B in aluminum vehicle parts alone.
BCG's Felix Stellmaszek noted, "Visibility right now is extremely low, and the fog of war is very thick," highlighting the confusion and urgency among suppliers as they adapt to evolving trade policies.
More in Automotive News: Why steel and aluminum tariffs are keeping auto suppliers up at night $
Editor’s Note: Elm Analytics offers accessibly priced services to help automotive manufacturers of all sizes collaborate with suppliers for deeper supply chain visibility and compliance support.
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President Trump signaled that US tariffs on Canadian autos—already at 25%—could rise further, even as trade talks continue.
The threat of higher duties puts pressure on cross-border supply chains and risks unraveling decades of US–Canada automotive integration.
Six leading US automotive groups have warned the Trump administration that new tariffs on imported auto parts—set to take effect May 3—could disrupt global supply chains, drive up costs, and trigger production halts, layoffs, and bankruptcies among vulnerable suppliers.
While acknowledging the administration's openness to revisions, the groups emphasized that continued uncertainty is already prompting automakers to adjust their US production plans.
The looming tariffs intensify supply chain risk and accelerate financial pressure across Tier-1 and Tier-2 suppliers.
President Trump will reportedly exempt certain auto parts from steep tariffs on Chinese imports and metals, following intense lobbying from automakers concerned about rising costs and supply chain disruptions.
While the 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles remains in place, the partial relief may ease short-term pressure; however, broader policy uncertainty still clouds the industry's outlook.
The UK may cut its 10% tariff on US car imports to 2.5% as part of trade talks with the Trump administration.
Relocating
Hyundai has shifted production of its Tucson SUV from Mexico to the US in response to escalating trade pressures, highlighting how shifting policy dynamics are reshaping automotive production strategies.
Toyota is reportedly considering relocating some next-generation RAV4 production from Canada and Japan to Kentucky by 2027 to mitigate tariff and currency risks.
