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Sadly, I'm not sure the tariff scenario probability predictions are right. Seems to me the teams who developed them are a little over optimistic about it all fizzling out nice and quickly and the past becoming the future. It appears to me a broader view, greater than just automotive, would be a wiser factor. I fear the isolationism factor is intended to be far wider than automotive manufacturing alone.

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Your insight is much appreciated, Mark. The pace at which trade policy is changing is dizzying, and your point about broader trends toward isolationism is well warranted. What was considered "rocking the boat" a month ago now seems like ripples in the water. For an industry optimized on lean techniques and just-in-time manufacturing, shifting away from globally integrated supply chains is more than just a bump in the road. It's an outright paradigm shift. Where that leaves us is anything but comfortable.

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I look forward to your post today, after the announced imposition of 25% tariffs on all automotive products. Interesting to note that on paper Tesla is the biggest beneficiary in the USA, only having circa 30% non-US manufactured components.

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