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Elm Analytics - Automotive Supply Chain Risk Digest #203 - December 25 - 31, 2020

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Automotive Supply Chain Risk Digest

January 1 · Issue #203 · View online

Weekly highlights of the events that impact supply chain risk within the automotive industry.


On this New Year’s Day, we want to extend our sincere thanks to each and every one of you for your continued readership during this unprecedented time.
We are grateful for your support and genuinely looking forward to 2021.
We also promise that this will be the last time we use the word “unprecedented” this year.
On behalf of all of us at Elm Analytics, we wish you a very happy new year.
Stay safe and take care of each other.
Cheers!
Nick & Steve

INDUSTRY DIRECTIONS
Automotive News: Top stories of 2020
In 2020, automakers expanded existing locations, built new plants, and retooled factories, despite looming uncertainty in 2020.
Volkswagen may be deploying some EV charging robots as early as next year. The robots would be launched by an app or Car-to-X communication protocols and work in restricted parking areas.
Analysts predict Nio, Xpeng, and Li will challenge Tesla‘s EV thrown in China this year.
LITIGATION
The US International Trade Commission is investigating whether Volkswagen infringed on patents held by Jaguar Land Rover relating to an off-road driving system.
MERGERS, VENTURES, ACQUISITIONS
Next year, Panasonic will spend tens of millions to produce a prototype production line for its new 4680 batteries for Tesla. The batteries are expected to have 5X the energy density and 6X the power of Tesla’s current batteries.
PLANT EXPANSION
FCA will upgrade its plant in Tychy, Poland, to start making EVs by mid-2022. The cost of the investment and the potential number of jobs created is currently unclear.
PLANT OPENING
CATL will build three new battery plants in China. The move will add upwards of 120GWh of capacity.
PRODUCTION INCREASE
BMW is expecting to build around 250k more EVs “than originally planned” between 2021 and 2023.
RAW MATERIALS
China is looking to build one or two iron ore mines overseas to bring in over 20% of its imports by 2025. They will also ban new steel capacity at home and increase its top five steel mills’ output to 40% of total output.
REGULATION
The US Department of Commerce ruled that tires from South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam will be subject to preliminary antidumping duties from 5% to 217%.
Tariff exclusions that shielded many American companies from paying extra taxes on imports from China are set to expire today.
Japan’s new “green growth strategy” is to eliminate gasoline-powered vehicles in the 15 years. The strategy is part of its goal to eliminate its net carbon emissions by 2050.
Following a suite of initiatives rolled out in April, more than 1,700 Japanese owned companies and manufacturers have pulled out of China. The $2.35B in Tokyo subsidies is encouraging companies to head home or expand elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
Britain’s Parliament resoundingly approved a new trade deal with the EU this week.
Apart from changes in trade, Brexit will have other effects on UK residents, such as how they travel and where they can work.
The UK has also signed a trade deal with Turkey. One focus of the negotiation was protecting automotive supply chains.
RISK ANALYTICS
Despite reaching a draft UK-EU trade deal last week, there is still concern that more manufacturers may shut down their UK plants.
SUPPLY CHAIN
Analysts believe the ocean container demand spike will continue past the Chinese New Year and into the spring.
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