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Elm Analytics - Automotive Supply Chain Risk Digest #156 - January 31 - February 6, 2020

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Automotive Supply Chain Risk Digest

February 7 · Issue #156 · View online
Weekly highlights of the events that impact supply chain risk within the automotive industry.

Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
BANKRUPTCY
Aston Martin received a $647m investor-led cash infusion allowing it to avoid bankruptcy.
CHANGE IN MANAGEMENT
Chevrolet marketing VP Paul Edwards, who was behind the automaker’s long-running “Real People, Not Actors” campaign, has left the automaker. Edwards will be succeeded by Steve Majoros, who has been guiding the 2020 Corvette launch.
EARNING DIP
Ford lost $1.7b in the fourth quarter of 2019. CEO Jim Hacket attributed most of the drop to “operational execution” not being “nearly good enough.”
INDUSTRY DIRECTIONS
Britain’s ban on new gasoline and diesel cars set to take effect in 2035 could put many industry jobs at risk.
Ford says that it has made enough CO2 level reductions across its new European models to meet the EU’s stringent new emissions targets. As a result, the automaker expects to avoid paying any fines.
LITIGATION
GM has issued a second recall for some 2019 Chevy Silverado, GMC Sierra and Cadillac CT6 vehicles after the first recall from December caused brake failures. Of the 550k vehicles recalled, 162k were repaired with the flawed software.
DISASTER
The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade issued the first force majeure certificate related to the coronavirus epidemic. The unnamed automotive supplier in Huzhou was 20k items behind schedule and unable to meet its obligations to a Peugeot plant in Africa.
PLANT EXPANSION
BMW will increase its capacity for producing EV drivetrain systems at its Dingolfing plant in Germany. The division will more than double the number of employees from 600 to 1,400 by the end of 2020.
Honda plans to double production capacity at one of its plants in Guangzhou, China, to 240k vehicles per year.
PLANT OPENING
Continental ADAS will break ground on a 215k sf plant in New Braunfels, Texas, producing driver-aided radar systems. Its existing Seguin, Texas plant will shift from radar sensors to powertrain components.
Sweden’s Gnotec Group opened its first North American plant in Orangeburg County, South Carolina. The 30k sf facility will produce welded components to nearby Volvo and BMW factories.
PLANT SHUTDOWN
Honda and Renault have extended the production shutdowns for their plants in Wuhan, China, until February 13. Other automakers in the area have taken similar measures.
OEM Plant Shutdowns (until): BMW Shenyang (Feb-9). Tesla Shanghai (Feb-9). Ford CAF & JMC (Feb-10). Honda / Dongfeng (Feb-13). Renault Wuhan (Feb-13).
Renault Samsung is planning to halt its operations in Korea for three days starting February 11 as a result of a disruption in supply chain management due to the coronavirus.
PRODUCTION DECREASE
RAW MATERIALS
Raw materials prices plunged this week after markets reacted to China’s sharp drop in manufacturing activity.
REGULATION
As part of its trade truce with the US, China cut tariffs on $75b worth of US imports, including soybeans, pork, and auto parts this week. China signed a “Phase 1” trade agreement with the US last month aimed at ending the long-running tariff war between the two countries.
Nuro, a self-driving delivery robot, has the first FMVSS exemption from the US Department of Transportation. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) require human controls, like steering wheels, mirrors, and windshields.
RISK ANALYTICS
US auto sales plateaued at 17 million in 2019, and analysts are predicting a drop in 2020. Predictions for 2020 sales are between 16.3m - 16.6m.
A new report from Standard & Poors says that Volkswagen is the automaker most exposed to the coronavirus outbreak in China. Volkswagen produces and sells almost 40% of its cars in China.
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